Friday, July 25, 2008

AL South Preview

The AL South joins the NL North as the two divisions comprised mainly of new owners. This may mean that it holds some of the greatest intrigue: will the new owners continue on the path set out by previous ownership, or will they turn a one-eighty, tear it down and rebuild, or sell the farm to compete now?

At least in the case of the AL South, all this transition may mean nothing more than the status quo. The Division was a hard-fought battle between roughly .500 teams last season, with only eventual champion Santa Fe emerging from the fray to advance to the postseason. As the only team with ownership returning and seeming continuity, will they remain the class of the most balanced (mediocre?) division in the American League? Let's take a look at how the Division stacks up for Season 9. The teams are placed in the order they finished last season.

Santa Fe Conquistadors

Key Departures: Ray Gonzales (Trade), Russ Flanagan (Trade).

Key Acquisitions: Vicente Mercedes (Trade), Turner Monroe (Trade), Bryan Blue (Trade).

Breakdown: Santa Fe's continuity is no surprise; they have been by far the most consistent and successful franchise in the Division. An .852 team OPS was good for 5th in the majors last season. Powered by 277 HR (3rd in MLB) the Conquistadors scored 988 runs, again good for 5th among all teams. This offensive surge allowed them to pummel the AL South competition, but the 5.58 team ERA and 950 runs allowed meant that they needed every bit of that power to compete. Management attempted to remedy that issue in the offseason, trading for two new starters to try and stem the tide. The question remains, however, will they be able to replace Flanagan's 48 HR output?

Outlook: Santa Fe is banking on a major uptick in the rotation; this could finally be the year for Pedro Lee to break out. The aquisitions allowed them to expect some more consistency around Lee and William Stanley, the only real workhorse last year. Expect them to surrender fewer runs this season, and if trade acquisition Mercedes can improve on his .751 OPS last season, the runs they put up will be more than sufficient to back the dramatically improved rotation and keep them in the hunt for the Division crown once again.

Charleston Trawlers

Key Departures: Willie Flores (FA), P.T. Prieto (Trade), Al Montana (Trade)

Key Acquisitions: Rock Owens (FA), Kyle Hamilton (FA), George Shields (FA), Willie Balboa (Trade).

Breakdown: As the Mexico City Mattahdaddies (whatever that means), the club competed gamely for the Division crown last season, despite lingering near the middle of the pack in nearly every offensive and pitching category. This season, they cut ties with perennial producer Prieto and his .914 OPS, as well as two potential up-and-comers on the infield in Montana and Vicente Mercedes. The loss of Flores also left a fairly large hole in the bullpen.

Outlook: The club looked to fill many of its holes through free agency, signing two starters and several relievers, in addition to catcher Angel Dickens. The key to the club's success remains the performance of ace Odalis Batista (1.24 WHIP last season), but much will also ride on whether Balboa can replicate his prior 50-HR form or continues his decline. Three new starters, complete bullpen makeover, and lineup changes all over the place. The projected grade for this team is "?".

New Orleans River Crushers

Key Departures: Willie Lima (Trade), Vic Riley (Trade).

Key Acquisitions: Torey Davis(Trade), Juan Nieves (Trade), Alex Vincente (FA).

Breakdown: Fresh off a 76-86 campaign, the Houston Rangers have relocated to New Orleans for Season 9. The club cut ties with Riley, an All-Star Pitcher, and swapped some major prospects to bolster what had been an aging team; they turned loose some dead weight, but losing Riley will certainly be a blow to a club that was in the bottom third in the majors in ERA, WHIP, and HR allowed. The Rangers finished just beneath Sante Fe in most offensive categories and have added masher Nieves to that potent attack.

Outlook: Davis looks like a star on the rise, and an anchor to that rotation for years to come. The River Crushers also added young Vincente, who looks to be able to manage a staff and mature with the new younger nucleus. With a youth movement led by Cy LaRocca at short, and counting on another solid 30 HR .930 OPS season from reliable Don Milliard in CF, the offense and young pitching add up to a big step forward in their new home. Could we be talking about playoffs down on the bayou?

El Paso Sandstorms

Key Departures: Teddy Petersen (Retired), Tommy Henry (FA)

Key Acquisitions: Howie Hughes (Trade), Del Maduro (FA), Pat Kaufman (FA).

Breakdown: The Louisville Reds finished fourth in the Division last season, but at only 71-91, the club is far from a lost cause. Relocating to El Paso, the Sandstorms will also look to get younger at several positions. That youth will have to replace the 33 HR of Henry and the .845 OPS supplied by Peterson in part-time duty. They will also need to find a way to improve on their 5.54 ERA and .291 BAA.

Outlook: If Kaufman can return to his standout rookie performance of Season 5 (48 HR, .906 OPS), the offense should not be a problem, especially with the continued improvement of B.C. Santos. However, the most aggressive move of the offseason, and the one that the Sandstorms need to succeed, is the acquisition of Hughes. He must improve on that career 1.88 WHIP if he is to stabilize the rotation as they desperately need him to. Looks like a step forward for the Sandstorms with some nice offseason moves, but pitching will ultimately tell the tale for the new ownership.

No comments: